The term VUCA originated in the US military, specifically the US Army War College in the late 1980s/early 1990s. In the acronym (V) Volatility is about the speed and magnitude of change. (U) Uncertainty is about the lack of predictability or clarity about what will happen. (C) Complexity is about the many interconnected factors and variables. While (A) Ambiguity is about situations where cause, effect or meaning isn’t clear.
What can charities do if their environment is VUCA?
Volatility
This invites charities to anchor themselves in purpose, values and resilience, while developing an adaptive strategy to absorb shocks, respond quickly and protect against the impact of the changes.
Summary: Stabilise, create counters and adapt.
Action: Look at building unrestricted financial reserves, practice roleplay (train hard, fight easy) and regularly do scenario planning.
Uncertainty
This invites charities to maintain a portfolio of options and test assumptions through proportionate experimentation. Combine evidence, experience and insight to decide where to invest, adapt or stop. Have contingency plans. Develop reliable intelligence networks.
Summary: Seek expert advice, explore and learn.
Action: Brainstorm. Ensure rapid feedback loops. Verify sources independently. Look at developing an innovation pipeline.
Complexity
This invites charities to create sufficient decision space for systems thinking, collective sense-making and experimentation, while acting proportionately where delay would harm beneficiaries.
Summary: Understand and act.
Action: Explore systems mapping. Buy time for more analysis. Seek diverse points of view.
Ambiguity
This invites charities to test their interpretations through diverse perspectives, especially those of beneficiaries and communities, and to make values-led decisions while remaining open to revision.
Summary: Reframe and decide.
Action: Encourage structured challenge and beneficiary participation.
Simon
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